By U AC
Current State of Affairs
I doubt anyone with a basic understanding of economics would dispute negative economic growth for this calendar year. We cannot simply take the official accounts and take the balance of trade surplus as an accurate indicator of the economy. With severe restrictions on imports, this current account is always likely to be in surplus. Yet imports continued to flow in like a tidal wave across a large number of porous borders. Without considering these unofficial statistics, we will not be able to judge the economy correctly and we would be misinterpreting the economic signals on most fronts.
With the dearth of credible economic statistics being publicize, it does not help but accentuate the bombardment of negative news coming out via fake news circles encamped within the perimeters of Chiang Mai, Thailand. How would we be able to take the correct remedy, if we do not know of genuine facts and figures?
Yet, we are still dragging each other down, oblivious to the fact that other countries, especially those neighbouring us, are treating us like dirt. We cursed and swore at our leaders online, attacked Myanmar’s own brands, businesses and companies if there was the slightest hint of them supporting our own government and Tamadaw and shoved our competitors into the trench vengefully for even the slightest of mistakes. Myopic, as blind as a bat, tunnel vision would come to our minds. Do they not know that our destiny is all tied by the same red passport that we have to hold when we get out of this land?
Nonetheless, the majority seem to have fallen into the trap of those instigators who want the country to fail and the economy wrecked because these campaigners no longer share our destiny. Holding passports of the Western countries (US, UK, Australia, etc.) they called for upheaval and continuing revolution, bestowing distrust among our nationals and promoting the mass murders of one another. Without unity on the inside, we will always be the lowest of the rock-bottom class people in view of other countries.
I do not want to dwell much on the Tatmadaw fronts. Reading the ‘Lashio Incident’ would probably help you better understand the circumstances.
Murphy’s Law
Worst things always happen at the worst possible times! That’s what the Murphy’s Law said. Even you can convince yourself easily; on the day you have left the umbrella at home, there will be a downpour. When you are eating KFC with your fingers, there will be an itch on your body that you cannot possibly reach or scratch. Sounded familiar?
When the country is feeling despondent on the economic, security and military fronts, suddenly, once in a century flood will extensively inundate our farmlands and homes. The impact is going to last beyond this year. The standard of living has already gone down due to kyat depreciation and excessive inflation. What more could we possibly suffer?
Notwithstanding, the recovery efforts are going to be long and arduous. Families are already in desperate need of help. NNCP terrorist groups claimed they were all for the people, and then they all vanished from sight once the floods came in. Donations they collected are all for themselves only. There is even a news report of them shooting at Tatmadaw soldiers on the flood rescue missions. I don’t know if Kipling would be able to say the same phrase now, if he were alive: “I love the Burman with the blind favouritism born of first impression. When I die, I will be a Burman”. What an irony, considering how things are now.
Getting the Inflation Wrong
CBM and MOF stated the last FY inflation officially at 27 per cent. When the price of the eggs, e.g., has gone up from around K100 the year before to nearly K500 now, you know the figure is a hogwash. With the US dollar rates going up nearly 300 per cent within the last three years, you know for sure, that the imported inflation is somewhere around that figure. (Fret not, inflation in the UK, from 2019 to 2022 was six times the average figure of the previous ten years)
Electricity bills are going up from September 2024 onwards. The diesel and petrol are heading north all the time. These two costs would be passed on to the prices of locally produced goods and services.
The danger here is that inflation is becoming unanchored; with no third party or credible confirmation on inflation figures, the headline figure becomes flexible without any targeted number by CBM or the MOF. This long period of inflation would lead to both individuals and companies, expecting more price rises in the future.
Researchers from the Western world have proven that an unexpected 1 per cent increase in CPI or RPI (Consumer/Retail Price Index) produces a 0.7 per cent rise in inflationary expectations for the future and the fact that the unexpected increase continued to exert influence over future pricing decisions.
Once this expectation has set in, it would become even more difficult to control inflation. A dire warning for the CBM/MOF perhaps, but getting the truth out, setting the targets and garnering support, especially from the business community would be an excellent start. Else, the future looks grim.
Pulse of the Foreign Believers
One Singapore businessman who has been operating in Myanmar for the past thirty years complained of having to fund the operations out of his savings and having no new products to sell to customers because of the ban on imports.
One Indian businessman who is a major exporter of beans and pulses as well as the owner of several restaurants, whines of the same issue. He has made Myanmar his home since his father’s time. Now, his moans have become meows and he decided to spend more of this time back in India and elsewhere.
One Frenchman, who is a permanent resident of Myanmar, has deserted Myanmar after his 20-year-old travel and tour businesses had to remain shut, due to the absence of any inbound European tourists into Myanmar. To rub salt into his wounds, his boutique hotel in Inlay which he wanted to put up for sale, was devastated so much by recent floods that he is back in Myanmar to clean up and repair the damages. An irony perhaps, for someone who loves Myanmar much.
The ‘last to arrive and the first to leave’ Japanese are still trying to find buyers for their factories in Thilawa and around Yangon, to abandon Myanmar.
Koreans are also moaning in distress, complaining incessantly of incurring losses year after year and difficult economic environment, especially on the import and money transfer fronts.
The Chinese want certainty in the political situation and the scarcity of information is making all of them nervous, especially those credible ones by government news agencies.
Bringing the Confidence Back
A good proportion of investments and consumption in a country depends on the confidence that businesses and people have in that country and its economy. So, what’s the recipe to increase confidence across the board?
(1) Communication: We need the top leaders and ministers from the government to talk about the State of the Union at least every month. Many like me believe in the current leaders and trust that they are doing their best for the country. With a little bit of top-down communication, these followers cannot help but feel motivated about the need to move in the same direction as the government and help accomplish its policies. Best of all, they could help persuade others who lean towards the dark side to get themselves back to the mainstream, thereby reducing terrorism and destructive behaviours along the way.
(2) Moral leadership: If you look at Facebook and TikTok right now, Myanmar pages are full of impoliteness, impertinence, impudence and insolence, highlighting the lack of moral guidance and leadership from elderly statesmen and alike. Akin to Lee Kuan Yew and Goh Chok Tong giving moral guidance for the civil service and general population, we also need moral leaders who cared enough about the social apathy and lack of concern about the deterioration of moral values and standards, across the board. We need those who are not chicken out to talk about these degrading moral principles in public and media.
(3) We need timelines and specific actions: Instead of using wishy-washy phrases such as the government is doing what is necessary, the ministry is doing the needful, the department is carrying out the essentials, would it not be a change for the better, if timelines and specific actions are included. Instead of just saying we will try to bring peace in Mandalay, e.g., would it not be building more confidence if the public heard that the Mandalay Region would be free of terrorists by the end of the year, by hook or by crook? Or something equivalent perhaps.
With such confidence being built up, businessmen or people with savings would no longer be buying gold and USD. Foreign investors would not be thinking of turning their back on Myanmar. The general population would be more supportive of the government’s actions. More people would start re-investing and hiring people. These confidence-building exercises alone would be a much-needed uplift to the economy, without costing anything to the State.
When would be the right time for youth?
The current Thai Prime Minister is 38. Singapore’s Prime Minister is 48. Last year, when Cambodia’s Ambassador to Myanmar left the country, he was 34. The new Ambassador is 39 years old. I believe you be hard-pressed to find any ambassadors or ministers of Myanmar below the ripe old age of 60. The majority of them have been on this earth for more than six decades. Being older may equate to being wiser with better judgement, but it also means that they would be unwilling to make changes, slow in decision making, ‘cheugy’ in technology and reluctant to upset the status quo. Worst of all, they are likely to be ‘yes’ men and avoid publicity, challenges and controversies.
Even in a recent election in a statutory board (council), the people wanting to occupy the top posts are 73 and 71 years old. Both of them are competing with another 50-year-old, whom they deemed to be young to take on the responsibility. Opportunity for youth only exists in books and words in Myanmar perhaps.
Would it not be better if the youth were given a chance to face challenges while being guided by the experience? Would it not be preferable for the country to generate youthful and contemporary ideas from the qualified youth (around 50 years old)?
Probably I have to repeat the phrase of the day from Trump - Well, we have concepts of a plan (to promote youths)!
